SACRAMENTO — Republican Steve Hilton leads nearly all other candidates in campaign fundraising for California’s wide-open gubernatorial race, but a recent poll suggests that money alone may not translate into voter support.
Hilton, a commentator and former Fox News contributor who previously worked for British Prime Minister David Cameron, raised about $4.1 million in the second half of 2025. He touted the haul on social media as “what momentum looks like,” though campaign reports show he has already spent more than half and began 2026 with roughly $2 million on hand — only slightly more than fellow Republican, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
Despite Hilton’s fundraising advantage, a new Emerson College/Inside California Politics poll of 1,000 likely California voters conducted December 1–2, 2025, finds the race remains tightly contested:
California 2026 Governor Race: Fundraising vs Polling
Fundraising ($M)
Chad Bianco (R)
Poll: 13%, Fundraising: ~$2M
Steve Hilton (R)
Poll: 12%, Fundraising: ~$4.1M
Eric Swalwell (D)
Poll: 12%, Fundraising: ~$3.1M
Katie Porter (D)
Poll: 11%, Fundraising: ~$3M
Tom Steyer (D)
Poll: 4%, Fundraising: ~$28M (self-funded)
The poll shows Bianco narrowly leading by just one point, while Hilton and Swalwell are essentially tied. Nearly a third of voters remain undecided, underscoring how little fundraising has yet to sway the electorate.
Even among Democrats, heavy spending has not guaranteed early leads. Billionaire self-funder Tom Steyer has poured $28 million of his own money into the race, spending $26 million on TV and digital ads to increase name recognition. Yet the poll shows him with only 4% support — trailing candidates who raised far less.
“Money helps you get your name out there, but it’s not a guarantee of votes,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Bianco and Swalwell show that organization, messaging, and voter perception can outweigh sheer fundraising totals.”
Other Democratic candidates, including Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and Xavier Becerra, have raised smaller sums, ranging from $2.6 million to $3.4 million on hand as 2026 begins. Yet they remain competitive in voter support, showing that grassroots backing and early engagement matter just as much as dollars.
Political strategists warn that with only four months until the June primary, fundraising may matter more in the final push, but early polls highlight that high fundraising totals do not automatically translate into electoral dominance.
“No candidate is running away with this race,” said Democratic strategist Garry South. “Even with millions in the bank, the voters have the final say.”
Favorability and the Newsom Factor
Porter remains the most polarizing candidate, with a 30% favorable rating and 34% unfavorable. Swalwell had the second-highest favorability at 24%, followed by Bianco at 21%. Nearly one-third of voters remain undecided about the field.
Gov. Gavin Newsom continues to maintain a majority of voter support, with 52% favorable and 38% unfavorable, though his approval rating has remained largely stable. He is particularly popular with voters under 40, who approve of his job by a 21-point margin.
With the fundraising leaders — Hilton and Steyer — not leading in the polls, the California governor’s race underscores a recurring lesson in politics: early money matters, but it doesn’t always predict early wins.
Photo by Levi Meir Clancy
Discover more from SW Newsmagazine
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
