By now the 2026 Best Picture race has crystallized around a handful of contenders. The ten nominees include Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, and Train Dreams. But if you follow awards season closely, you know the real conversation has narrowed to a few key films: One Battle After Another, Sinners, and Hamnet.
On paper, One Battle After Another looks like the dominant contender. Paul Thomas Anderson’s sweeping war drama has racked up major awards all season. At the Golden Globes, it won Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy, Best Director, Best Screenplay, and Best Supporting Actress for Teyana Taylor.
The film continued that momentum throughout awards season. It won Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards, and Anderson has also taken major directing prizes from critics groups and industry organizations, putting the film firmly at the center of the race.
Then there’s Sinners, Ryan Coogler’s bold horror-thriller set in 1932 Mississippi about twin brothers battling a supernatural threat in the Delta. Coogler wrote, directed, and produced the film, continuing his long creative partnership with Michael B. Jordan in their fifth collaboration together. The director, already known for Creed and Black Panther, has built a reputation for blending genre filmmaking with deeper themes, and Sinners may be his most ambitious work yet.
The film had a strong showing at the Golden Globes as well, winning Cinematic and Box Office Achievement and Best Original Score. But beyond the Globes, Sinners has quietly become one of the most decorated films of the entire season.
It won Outstanding Film at the Black Reel Awards, where it led the ceremony with 14 total wins. It also swept several major prizes from the African American Film Critics Association, including Best Film, Best Director for Ryan Coogler, Best Actor for Michael B. Jordan, Best Supporting Actress for Wunmi Mosaku, Best Ensemble, and Best Music.
The film has also dominated several critics groups. At the Houston Film Critics Society Awards, it won Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor, among several other prizes.
Meanwhile, the Online Film Critics Society Awards gave Sinners the most wins of the night, and the Music City Film Critics Association Awards handed the film a remarkable 12 awards, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Screenplay, and Best Cinematography.
On top of that, Coogler recently won Best Original Screenplay at the Writers Guild of America Awards, one of the final major guild prizes before the Oscars.
All of that momentum is precisely why I think Ryan Coogler will win Best Director.
But the movie I think will actually win Best Picture on Sunday is Hamnet.
Chloé Zhao’s adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel about the death of William Shakespeare’s young son is a quieter film than its competitors, but that may ultimately work in its favor. At the Golden Globes, Hamnet won Best Motion Picture – Drama, while Jessie Buckley took home Best Actress in a Drama for her devastating central performance.
The film also performed strongly with industry voters overseas, winning Outstanding British Film at the BAFTAs, while Buckley also won Best Actress there.
Those wins helped establish Hamnet as one of the most respected films of the year, even if it hasn’t dominated headlines the way One Battle After Another or Sinners has.
And that’s exactly why I think it could win.
The Academy has always had a soft spot for British period dramas—especially ones rooted in literature and performance. These films appeal to multiple branches of the Academy: actors admire the performances, writers appreciate the literary source material, and craftspeople respond to the design and production work.
History backs this up.
One of the most famous Oscar upsets happened at the 1999 ceremony, when Shakespeare in Love defeated Steven Spielberg’s war epic Saving Private Ryan. At the time, Spielberg’s film seemed unstoppable. But the Academy ultimately chose the smaller, more theatrical period drama.
We’ve seen similar dynamics before. Even the infamous 2017 ceremony—when La La Land was mistakenly announced before the correction revealed Moonlight as the actual winner—reflected the Academy’s willingness to reward a more intimate film over a larger spectacle.
That’s where the preferential ballot comes into play.
Since 2009, Academy voters rank the Best Picture nominees rather than choosing just one. If no film receives a majority of first-place votes, the lowest-ranked films are eliminated and their votes redistributed until a winner emerges. This system tends to reward consensus picks—the movies that a lot of voters rank second or third even if they aren’t everyone’s number one.
And Hamnet feels like that kind of film.
It’s beautifully acted, emotionally devastating, and visually elegant without being divisive. It may not dominate first-place votes, but it’s also the kind of film very few voters would rank near the bottom.
I also think the acting categories could align with that outcome.
My prediction for Best Actress is Jessie Buckley for Hamnet, a performance that has already won major awards including the Golden Globe and BAFTA. Her work anchors the entire film and delivers the kind of quiet emotional power the Academy often rewards.
For Best Actor, I’m predicting Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another. DiCaprio’s commanding performance in Paul Thomas Anderson’s war drama feels like the kind of role the Academy gravitates toward in this category.
Meanwhile, I think Best Director will go to Ryan Coogler for Sinners. The Academy often splits Picture and Director when two different films dominate the conversation, rewarding one film for overall impact while honoring another for its bold filmmaking.
If that pattern holds, the night could ultimately split its biggest prizes.
I am not a betting gal, but here they are!
Hamnet wins Best Picture.
Ryan Coogler wins Best Director for Sinners.
Leonardo DiCaprio wins Best Actor for One Battle After Another.
Jessie Buckley wins Best Actress for Hamnet.
And if Oscar history tells us anything, it’s that sometimes the quietest film in the race ends up having the last word.
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