Betty Yee’s withdrawal has reshaped California’s governor’s race, where Steve Hilton holds an early lead and Xavier Becerra is gaining ground as Democrats struggle to consolidate support. Undecided voters could potentially influence the outcome.
California Governor’s Race Tightens After Betty Yee Exit, Republicans Hold Early Edge
California’s 2026 gubernatorial race is entering a critical phase following the withdrawal of former State Controller Betty Yee, a move that has further reshaped an already volatile primary and sharpened early advantages for Republican contenders.
With just weeks until the June 2 primary, the race is increasingly defined by two competing dynamics: a consolidating Republican base and a still fragmented Democratic field. As SW Newsmagazine has documented across its ongoing coverage, that imbalance is now beginning to show more clearly in statewide polling.
Readers can explore more than 20 prior reports and analysis pieces in SW Newsmagazine’s California political archive:
https://www.scopeweekly.com/category/california-legislative
Republican Candidates Maintain Momentum
Recent April polling from Evitarus, Gudelunas Strategies, and Emerson College shows Republican Steve Hilton leading the field, polling between approximately 16 percent and 20 percent. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco follows closely, with support ranging from roughly 14 percent to 17 percent.
The consistency of those numbers has positioned both candidates as strong contenders to advance under California’s top-two primary system, where the highest two vote-getters move on regardless of party affiliation.
“Republicans lead the race for California governor after another Democrat drops out,” regional reporting noted, reflecting a broader trend of GOP consolidation.
Polling analysts have pointed to that consolidation as a key structural advantage in a crowded primary environment.
“Candidates with more unified bases tend to perform better in early primary polling,” according to an Emerson College Polling summary.
Hilton has centered his campaign on economic issues, particularly cost of living and regulatory policy, while Bianco has focused heavily on public safety, giving each candidate a distinct lane within the Republican electorate.
Democratic Field Reshaped by Departures
While Republicans have coalesced around two leading figures, Democrats are navigating a rapidly shifting field. The exit of Eric Swalwell, followed by Betty Yee’s withdrawal, has narrowed the slate but has not yet produced a clear frontrunner.
Yee’s departure removes a candidate who had appealed to institutional and policy-focused voters. At the same time, it underscores a dynamic that has persisted throughout the race: multiple Democratic candidates competing for overlapping blocs of support.
Xavier Becerra has emerged as one of the clearest beneficiaries of the reshuffle. Now polling between 10 percent and 13 percent, he has gained ground following Swalwell’s departure and is increasingly viewed as a potential consolidation candidate.
“Xavier Becerra appears to be gaining steam following Eric Swalwell’s departure,” recent polling analysis observed.
At the same time, Tom Steyer and Katie Porter remain active contenders, though neither has yet matched the polling strength of the Republican frontrunners.
Polling Snapshot: April 2026
| Candidate | Party | Polling Range (%) | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Hilton | R | 16 – 20 | 1st |
| Chad Bianco | R | 14 – 17 | 2nd |
| Xavier Becerra | D | 10 – 13 | Rising |
| Tom Steyer | D | 8 – 12 (est.) | Competitive |
| Katie Porter | D | 7 – 11 (est.) | Competitive |
| Undecided | — | ~20 | निर्णायक bloc |
Steve Hilton ████████████████ 16–20%
Chad Bianco ██████████████ 14–17%
Xavier Becerra ███████████ 10–13%
Tom Steyer █████████ ~8–12%
Katie Porter ████████ ~7–11%
Undecided █████████████ ~20%
Undecided Voters Could Decide the Outcome
Despite the emerging Republican advantage, the race remains highly fluid. Approximately 20 percent of voters remain undecided, a share large enough to significantly alter the trajectory of the primary.
“About one in five voters remain undecided at this stage,” according to aggregated April polling summaries.
“The race remains fluid, with a significant share of undecided voters capable of shifting the outcome,” a Gudelunas Strategies briefing noted.
With ballots set to begin reaching voters in early May, campaigns are expected to intensify outreach efforts and sharpen their messaging to capture that remaining share of the electorate.
What to Watch Before June 2
The central question in the final weeks of the race is whether Democrats can consolidate support behind a leading candidate or whether continued fragmentation will allow Republicans to maintain their edge and potentially secure both spots in the general election.
SW Newsmagazine’s prior reporting has consistently highlighted this structural tension, and recent developments have only reinforced it. Betty Yee’s withdrawal simplifies the field but does not resolve the underlying divide, which reflects broader differences in priorities among the remaining Democratic candidates.
“California’s top two primary system can produce unexpected outcomes when one party’s vote is split,” recent analysis has noted.
As the primary approaches, the outcome remains uncertain. Yet one trend is increasingly clear: early Republican consolidation, combined with a divided Democratic field and a large bloc of undecided voters, has transformed what was once expected to be a predictable contest into one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in recent California history.
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